Great Recession Research Articles

A 16-Year Analysis of Aesthetic Surgery Volume and Its Association with U.S. Economic Performance

Abstract Goals/Purpose Historically, demand for plastic surgery has been associated with the performance of the United States (US) economy. Over the past two decades, the US has weathered a recession, several presidential election cycles, and has seen a rise in the use and influence of social media. Each of these events has led to varying effects on the economy, which undoubtedly have had an impact on plastic surgery demand and expenditures. Thus, this study aims to evaluate the relationship between indicators of economic performance and the popularity and profitability of aesthetic surgery from 2006 to 2022. Methods/Technique Data from the Aesthetic Society’s (AS) Aesthetic Plastic Surgery National Databank and the American Society of Plastic Surgeons’ (ASPS) Plastic Surgery Statistics Report was collected from 2006 to 2022. Surgical procedures analyzed included the most commonly performed cosmetic surgeries: breast augmentation, breast reduction, mastopexy, abdominoplasty, liposuction, blepharoplasty, facelift, and rhinoplasty. The non-surgical botox injections and dermal fillers were also included. A total of 24 variables were examined, including the 10 procedures and two composite variables—total surgical procedures and total injectables; case change percent difference and patient expenditures percent difference were recorded for each of these. Within the corresponding period, economic indices were collected, including personal disposable income per capita (PDI), consumer price index (CPI), medical care services CPI, average gross domestic product per capita (GDP), and annual average closing prices of the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and the Dow Jones (DOW). Pearson correlation tests were used to analyze the strength of association between each financial indicator and case volumes and expenditures for each procedure included in the ASPS and AS reports. Results/Complications From 2006 to 2020 ASPS data demonstrated GDP year-over-year (YOY) change that was positively correlated with case volume and expenditures across 13 out of the 24 different procedure metrics (54.2%). From 2006 to 2016, AS data was positively correlated with the performance of NASDAQ, S&P500, and DOW in 12 of the 24 procedure metrics (50%). GDP YOY change closely followed suit with positive correlations to 11 variables (45.8%). YOY change of PDI, CPI, and medical care services CPI were less frequently associated amongst both data sets. For ASPS data, YOY medical services CPI change was negatively associated with five variables, indicating that as medical services CPI increased, volume of procedures and expenditures decreased. PDI YOY change was not significantly associated with any variables. In the AS dataset between 2006 and 2016, CPI YOY change was not found to be significantly associated with any variables. Across 2019–2022, CPI YOY and disposable YOY change were found to be significantly associated with three variables each. Conclusion Our study suggests that aesthetic plastic surgery procedures and expenditures are most positively correlated with GDP. Stock market indices are additional financial indicators which have significant positive correlations with plastic surgery case volume and expenditures. Inflation indicators were less frequently correlated. Over this timeframe, several important financial events have occurred including the Great Recession, a stock market selloff in 2015 and 2016, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Each of these events, along with several election cycles and the increasing influence of social media and popular culture, have had variable impacts on consumers and the demand for aesthetic plastic surgery. Plastic surgeons should be familiar with US and global financial markets as they fluctuate with current events. While plastic surgery prices and demand may be difficult to anticipate, this study elucidates several factors that may be used by plastic surgeons as a bellwether for their practice.

Analyzing inequalities: a multifaceted perspective of OECD welfare regimes during the Great Recession and the Pandemic

Analyzing inequalities: a multifaceted perspective of OECD welfare regimes during the Great Recession and the Pandemic

Regional Effects of the Great Recession on Greek Unemployment Rates: A Graphical Analysis

It is well documented that the Great Recession hit Greece very hard. External and internal factors have been put forward to explain why Greece was hit so hard relative to the other countries of the eurozone. Less attention has been paid to regional differences of the Great Recession impact. This study examines the effect of the Great Recession on the 13 NUTS2 regions of Greece, with an emphasis on the unemployment rate. Two issues are examined. First, the differences in the unemployment rates between the thirteen Greek regions are presented using available evidence from 1998 to 2022. Large differences in unemployment rates are observed. The second issue is the impact of the Great Recession on the convergence (or divergence) rates of the unemployment rates across regions. Keywords: Great Recession, unemployment rate, Greek regions, eurozone

Unemployment insurance and opioid prescriptions during the great recession

AbstractThis is the first U.S. study on the causal relationship between unemployment insurance (UI) expansions during the Great Recession and the use of prescribed opioids. Using annual county‐level prescription data from 2006 to 2013 and plausibly exogenous variation in state and federal policies, we estimate that a one standard deviation increase in UI generosity ($10,800) reduces per‐capita prescription opioid use by 1.9%. We supplement our main analysis with a border discontinuity design and find a similar effect. We also find no evidence of pre‐trends in the outcome. Finally, additional analyses suggest that increased health care utilization after exposure to higher UI generosity could be a plausible explanation for the declines in opioid prescriptions.

GREECE vs. SPAIN: Similarities and Differences in the Evolution of Unemployment in the 21st Century

Unemployment is one of the main problems facing today's economies. In the context of the European Union, it is the Mediterranean economies that have traditionally shown a less favorable evolution of unemployment. This paper presents an explanatory model of the evolution of unemployment in two of these Mediterranean economies, Greece, and Spain, since the launching of the European Monetary Union. These were two of the European economies hardest hit by the Great Recession of 2008 and subsequently by the pandemic in 2020, so it is interesting to study which economic factors would explain the evolution of their unemployment rates. For this purpose, economic variables such as GDP pc, the output gap, investment, deficit, the employment rate by educational levels, inflation, labour productivity, labour force and public spending as a percentage of GDP. On the other hand, it is interesting to note to what extent Greece and Spain have or have not shown similar patterns of behavior of their labour markets so far this century, and what kind of economic policy measures could be put in place to ensure that both countries cease to have one of the highest unemployment rates in the EU. Finally, it will be analyzed how they have been affected by the Great Recession and the covid health crisis. Keywords: unemployment rate, macroeconomic variables, labour market policies, Great Recession, COVID-19

How far from full employment? The European unemployment problem revisited

This paper analyses deviations from full employment in EU countries, compared with the US and the UK. We apply the Beveridge (full-employment-consistent) rate of unemployment (BECRU), derived from the unemployment-vacancies relationship. The BECRU is the level of unemployment that minimises the non-productive use of labour. Based on a novel dataset over 1970-2022, we find full employment episodes in selected EU countries (Germany, Sweden, Austria, Finland) during the 1970s. The European unemployment problem emerged in the 1980s and 1990s, as Beveridgean full employment gaps increased. In the run-up to the global financial crisis, full employment gaps declined, then increased during the Great Recession. Slack in labour markets initially increased during the pandemic. Labour markets became tighter when recovering from the COVID-19 crisis, but few countries hit full employment. We show that Beveridgean full employment gaps are informative in predicting the share of persons unemployed and not receiving education or vocational training.Hrassist@aptaracorp.com

A tale of multiple crises: Populist and non-populist narratives in European institutions from the Great Recession to the 2024 European elections

In the past decade, the strength of populist forces, especially those of the far right, has grown considerably in Europe, influencing European politics and modifying the composition of European institutions, and in particular the European Parliament. This essay posits that populist and non-populist narratives in EU institutions have evolved through the dynamics of polarization and reciprocal influence across multiple crises, from the start of the Great Recession in 2007 to the outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022. Depending on the results of the upcoming 2024 European elections, and especially in the case of a successful outcome of far-right populist parties, there might be more radical changes in the dominant forces and discourses of EU institutions.

External relations, regional productivity, and exogenous shocks: lessons from the Italian experience

AbstractThis study provides novel insights into the debate concerning the external drivers of productivity at local (NUTS-3) level. In particular, it explores the role played by global production networks, measured through ownership ties among multinational firms and their subsidiaries abroad, in shaping patterns of productivity growth of local economies. Focusing on the Italian experience and using spatial econometrics techniques, the article demonstrates that external relations play a crucial role in sustaining the productivity of Italian provinces, even during periods of severe economic downturns, like the Great Recession. In detail, productivity growth is positively correlated with the Intensity of the networks established by multinational firms and their geographical dispersion.

The Future of Globalization

The future of globalization has been debated ever since the term was introduced. The recent shocks of the Great Recession and the pandemic seem to herald a new epoch in the trajectory of globalization. Moving away from the hyperglobalization of the 1990s and 2000s, the world appears to be transitioning into a phase of deglobalization. The concept of globalization is intricate and multifaceted. This paper delves into four aspects of globalization: economic, political, social, and cultural. Poverty alleviation should stand as the paramount objective of globalization, closely intertwined with economic growth and democracy. The latter is essential for implementing policies that channel the benefits of economic growth to those striving to break free from poverty. In conclusion, it's asserted that globalization, when coupled with democracy, can continue to foster poverty reduction. The end of this process is the total eradication of poverty. Keywords: globalization, hyperglobalization, poverty, growth, democracy, openness, international trade, exports, education, illiteracy, life expectancy

Poverty and birth cohort effects of experiencing the 2007-2009 Great Recession during adolescence on major depressive episodes and mental health treatment of young adults in the United States.

Household economic adversity during adolescence is hypothesized to be a risk factor for poor mental health later in life. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a quasi-experimental analysis of an economic shock, the Great Recession of 2007-2009. We tested if going through adolescence during the Great Recession was associated with increased risk of major depressive episodes (MDE) and mental health treatment in young adulthood with potential moderation by household poverty to explore differences by economic adversity. We analyzed data on young adults age 18-29years from the 2005-2019 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (N = 145,394). We compared participants who were adolescents during the recession to those followed-up prior to the recession. Regression analysis tested effect modification by household poverty status. Adolescent exposure to the Great Recession was associated with higher likelihood of MDE during young adulthood (aOR = 1.30, 95% CI = 1.23, 1.37); there was no relationship with mental health treatment. Effects on MDE were stronger among those in households with higher incomes compared to those living in poverty. Findings support the hypothesis that exposure to the Great Recession during adolescence may have increased risk for MDE, but raise questions about whether the mechanism of this association is economic distress.

Voluntary disclosures regarding open market repurchase programs

AbstractThis paper studies voluntary disclosures that firms have suspended, resumed, or completed their open market repurchase programs. Voluntary disclosures of repurchase status updates are common and value‐relevant. They also inform subsequent repurchase activities: voluntary disclosers are more likely to complete their repurchase programs and to initiate new repurchase programs than firms with undisclosed repurchase status changes. Moreover, firms that disclose repurchase suspensions experience larger returns to subsequent repurchase authorizations, consistent with a reward for establishing a reputation for transparency via voluntary bad news disclosure. Finally, exploiting a change in repurchase reporting requirements, we document that voluntary updates are less frequent when mandatory disclosure increases. An important exception, however, is when macroeconomic uncertainty is high, such as during the Great Recession and the COVID‐19 pandemic.

Cities’ Hands Are Tied: Short-Term Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on Natural Population Growth in Metropolitan Greece

To delineate new directions of urban development in a context of demographic shrinkage in Southern Europe, the present study illustrates a comparative analysis of the demographic balance in metropolitan Athens, Greece (1956–2021). The analysis delineates short-term and long-term dynamics of the natural population balance, considering the impact of the Great Recession and COVID-19 pandemic, and assuming a contemporary increase in gross mortality rates and a marked fertility reduction associated with birth postponement. To address such objectives, we have compared the natural growth of population (the ratio of the total number of births to deaths) at ten year intervals (1956, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2009, 2019, 2020, 2021) in 115 municipalities of metropolitan Athens, controlling for the local context. The empirical results of descriptive statistics, spatial analysis, correlation statistics, non-parametric inference, and exploratory multivariate techniques outline the indirect impact of COVID-19 on population dynamics, being in some ways additive to the already observed effects of the Great Recession, reinforcing demographic shrinkage in specific local contexts. The COVID-19 pandemic and the Great Crisis likely accelerated the typical outcomes (population aging and low fertility) of the second demographic transition in Greece. These dynamics are associated with more volatile (and possibly reduced) immigration flows and with enhanced emigration, fueling urban shrinkage and a progressive economic decline of metropolitan regions, as our evidence suggests for Athens. Additional research should ascertain the aggregate, indirect role of pandemics in population dynamics as a proxy of urban and regional decline in European regions exposed to long-term aging.

Sectoral–regional resilience and productive specialization: a comparison among the last three crises

AbstractThe objective of this paper is to compare the economic resilience of industries and regions along the last four decades, which include the three last major crises for the advanced countries (90s, Great Recession in 2007 and recent COVID-19 pandemic). Productive structure and sectoral specialization are introduced as explaining factor for the different regional behaviors. For this purpose, we estimate both resilience and specialization indices based on employment data. To analyze the relationship between specialization and resilience, a cross-sectional descriptive analysis is complemented by a panel data model that includes some controls. Finally, a regional shift-share analysis contributes to exert some other regional effects affecting economic resilience. The results of this research show some continuities and other significant changes in the regional impact of crises from one to the next. Although there are other effects to have played a role, results show economic specialization is found to have exerted influence on the recovery of certain regions during this period. Recovery periods differ from each crisis and the results might be affected for this dimensionality limitation. Due to the characteristics of the database, the study includes only six sectors. However, general results are generalizable to other regions as the response of employment growth to crises is similar in many advanced regions and specialization patterns does not significantly differ among regions. The paper carries a structural long-term comparison between the last major crises for Spanish regions, which clearly differentiates one from another in their causes and effects. We introduce specialization to explain the different regional resilience patterns. Methodologically, we estimate both sectoral and regional resilience indices for these three crises and relate this resilience to specialization and other explaining factors.

Empirical Distribution of the U.S. Housing Market during the Great Recession: Nonlinear Scaling Behavior after a Major Crash

This study focuses on the real estate bubble burst in the US housing market during 2007–2008. We analyze the dynamics of the housing market crash and the after-crash sequence during the Great Recession. When a complex system deviates away from its typical path by the occurrence of an extreme event, its behavior is strongly characterized as nonstationary with higher volatility. With the utilization of a robust method, we present the characteristics of the aftershock period and provide useful information about the spatial distribution and the decay process of the aftershock sequence in terms of time. The returns of the housing price indices are well approximated by the empirics of a power law. Although we deal with low-frequency data, a time power-law relaxation pattern is identified. Our findings align with those in geophysics, indicating that the value of the relaxation parameter typically hovers around one and varies across different thresholds.

Making it in medical sociology

This article gives an account of some of my experiences of working in the field of Medical Sociology in Ireland. It concentrates in particular on the time period of the Great Recession and Ireland's economic crash and what it was like to be a precarious researcher and lecturer around that time.

Putting wage growth back on the table: Labour incorporation, political exchange, and wage-boosting policies in advanced peripheral economies

Growth model scholarship posits that wage-led growth has become increasingly difficult to achieve in advanced capitalist economies since the demise of Fordism. The constraints to the pursuit of policies compatible with wage-led growth strategies could be expected to be particularly stringent in peripheral economies, which often rely on price-sensitive exports, suppression of domestic demand, and labour disempowerment to compete in global markets. Yet, empirical experience shows that even advanced peripheral economies that adopted export-led growth strategies have successfully implemented policies intended to raise wages and expand social transfers. How to explain the emergence of such wage-boosting policies in the context of advanced peripheral, export-oriented economies? Drawing on the cases of Israel, Poland, and Spain since the Great Recession, we identify one common mechanism accounting for this unexpected outcome: the contingent political incorporation of organized labour through a cross-class political exchange in the coalition supporting a country’s growth strategy. We identify two scope conditions that enable the implementation of such policies in unlikely contexts. Domestic political instability, coupled with a contingent relaxation of prior economic constraints, leads governing parties of both left and right orientation to activate political exchange with unions, resulting in the implementation of diverse policies boosting household income. These policies also increase the role of domestic consumption as a key growth driver. Nonetheless, the depth and durability of such changes remain conditioned. The findings develop our understanding of the role of, and structural limits to, organized labour’s agency to promote wage growth in advanced peripheral economies.

Gentrification Beliefs and Attitudes Towards Park and Recreation Agency Actions Intended to Support People Experiencing Homelessness

After declining from historically high levels following the Great Recession, homelessness in the United States is again on the rise due to an increase in the prevalence of unsheltered homelessness, and homeless encampments in public spaces such as parks. As such, there is significant interest in understanding opinion regarding community park agency activities intended to support unhoused users. Unfortunately, these actions and investments may also contribute to the process of environmental gentrification. In this note we use structural equation modeling of survey responses to examine how beliefs about the gentrification process influence public attitudes toward park and recreation agency activities intended to support people experiencing homelessness. Gentrification beliefs were significantly related to attitudes toward both housing-related and service-related agency activities. Managers and other decision makers should consider the potential impact of agency activities on the gentrification process, and seek to understand stakeholder attitudes toward gentrification as a phenomenon.

Evaluating financial fragility: a case study of Chinese banking and finance systems

Global financial systems are inherently fragile due to their complexities. Thus, it is of great interest to devise various methods to assess the dynamics of financial fragility. As such, this study builds a financial fragility evaluation index system. The study finds three major fluctuations in the trend of financial fragility due to the great recession in 2008, the huge financial volatility in 2015, and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019. It also tests the index system on the Chinese finance market from 2007 to 2022. Observations of capital adequacy, non-performing loans, and liquidity ratios, in addition to the average return on total assets, are used to assess banking fragility. The results attained show that amongst the tested banks, the Bank of Ningbo has the lowest vulnerability score, mainly due to its higher average return on total assets, capital adequacy ratios, and lower non-performing loan ratio. On the other end of the spectrum, China Minsheng Bank has the highest vulnerability score due to its lower capital adequacy and higher non-performing loan ratios. These findings provide valuable insights into the banking sector in China for policy formulation.

The Dynamics of Inequality and Mobility: A Panel Data Analysis of the Spanish Income Tax

AbstractObjectiveThis article aims to analyze the evolution of income inequality and mobility in Spain during the period 1999–2011 by exploiting data from personal income tax returns.MethodsTo assess the evolution of inequality over the period analyzed, we have used some of the many metrics developed for this purpose, each of which offers a different approach depending on the segment of the income distribution they focus on (Gini coefficient, income shares, generalized entropy index, and the Atkinson class of measures).ResultsOur results suggest that, after a period of slightly declining income inequality, Spain experienced a rise in inequality in the years immediately preceding the Great Recession, before falling back to precrisis levels. With regard to income mobility, during this period, it was more common for individuals in the middle of the distribution to experience changes, while those at the top and bottom maintained a more stable position.ConclusionsThe economic boom of the late 1990s and early 2000s, as well as the Great Recession, had a significant impact on income inequality and mobility.

The three I's of downward income mobility: A directional subgroup decomposable measure

AbstractThe Foster‐Greer‐Thorbecke class of indices and the TIP curve have become classical tools to measure poverty. In this paper we adapt these indices and curve to the income mobility literature and measure downward income mobility considering its three dimensions of incidence, intensity, and inequality. This strategy allows us to incorporate reference dependence, loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity, features emphasized as welfare determinants in Prospect Theory. We propose the use of a class of measures and a Three I's of Downward Mobility curve as a useful graphical device in the income growth framework. Based on this curve we can evaluate the degree of regressivity (or progressivity) of income losses. We provide an empirical illustration for Spain in two recent recession periods. Results show that even if for most households the pandemic shock was not as severe as the Great Recession, some sociodemographic groups had a more similar downward mobility experience in both crises.